My 90⁄10 timeframe for when AGI gets built is 3 years-15 years. And most of my probability mass for PDoom is on the shorter end of that. If we have the current near-human-ish level AI around for another decade, I assume we’ll figure out how to control it.
My 90⁄10 timeframe for when AGI gets built is 3 years-15 years. And most of my probability mass for PDoom is on the shorter end of that. If we have the current near-human-ish level AI around for another decade, I assume we’ll figure out how to control it.
my p(Doom|AGI after 2040) is <1%