I mean it only suggests that they’re highly correlated. I agree that it seems likely they represent the views of the average “AI expert” in this case. (I should take a look to check who was actually sampled)
My main point regarding this is that we probably shouldn’t be paying this particular prediction market too much attention in place of e.g. the survey you mention. I probably also wouldn’t give the survey too much weight compared to opinions of particularly thoughtful people, but I agree that this needs to be argued.
I mean it only suggests that they’re highly correlated. I agree that it seems likely they represent the views of the average “AI expert” in this case. (I should take a look to check who was actually sampled)
My main point regarding this is that we probably shouldn’t be paying this particular prediction market too much attention in place of e.g. the survey you mention. I probably also wouldn’t give the survey too much weight compared to opinions of particularly thoughtful people, but I agree that this needs to be argued.