(3) is not necessarily a flaw. Every prediction market is an action market unless the outcome is completely outside human influence. If there were a prediction market where a concerned group of billionaires could invest a huge sum on the “No” side of “Will humans solve how to make AGI and ASI safety to ensure continued human thriving?” (or some much better operationalization of the idea), that would be great.
(3) is not necessarily a flaw. Every prediction market is an action market unless the outcome is completely outside human influence. If there were a prediction market where a concerned group of billionaires could invest a huge sum on the “No” side of “Will humans solve how to make AGI and ASI safety to ensure continued human thriving?” (or some much better operationalization of the idea), that would be great.
I agree it’s not a flaw in the grand scheme of things. It’s a flaw for using it for consensus for reasoning.