Get a dozen AI risk skeptics together, and I suspect you’ll get majority support from the group for each and every point that the AI risk case depends on. You, in particular, seem to be extremely aligned with the “doom” arguments.
The “guy-on-the-street” skeptic thinks that AGI is science fiction, and it’s silly to worry about it. Judging by your other answers, it seems like you disagree, and fully believe that AGI is coming. Go deep into the weeds, and you’ll find Sutton and Page and the radical e/accs who believe that AI will wipe out humanity, and that’s a good thing, and that wanting to preserve humanity and human control is just another form of racism. A little further out, plenty of AI engineers believe that AGI would normally wipe out humanity, but they’re going to solve the alignment problem in time so no need to worry. Some contrarians like to argue that intelligence has nothing to do with power, and that superintelligence will permanently live under humanity’s thumb because we have better access to physical force. And then, some optimists believe that AI will inevitably be benevolent, so no need to worry.
If I’m understanding your comments correctly, your position is something like “ASI can and will take over the world, but we’ll be fine”, a position so unusual I didn’t even think to include it detail in my lengthy taxonomy of “everything turns out okay” arguments. I am unable to make even a basic guess as to how you arrived at the position (though I would be interested in learning).
Please notice that your position is extremely non-intuitive to basically everyone. If you start with expert consensus regarding the basis of your own position in particular, you don’t get 87% chance that you’re right, you get a look of incredulity and an arbitrarily small number. If you instead want to examine the broader case for AI risk, most of the “good arguments” are going to look more like “no really, AI keeps getting smarter, look at this graph” and things like Yudkowsky’s “The Power of Intelligence”, both of which (if I understand correctly) you already think are obviously correct.
If you want to find good arguments for “humanity is good, actually”, don’t ask AI risk people, ask random “normal” people.
My apologies if I’ve completely misunderstood your position.
(PS: Extinction markets do not work, since they can’t pay out after extinction.)
Get a dozen AI risk skeptics together, and I suspect you’ll get majority support from the group for each and every point that the AI risk case depends on. You, in particular, seem to be extremely aligned with the “doom” arguments.
The “guy-on-the-street” skeptic thinks that AGI is science fiction, and it’s silly to worry about it. Judging by your other answers, it seems like you disagree, and fully believe that AGI is coming. Go deep into the weeds, and you’ll find Sutton and Page and the radical e/accs who believe that AI will wipe out humanity, and that’s a good thing, and that wanting to preserve humanity and human control is just another form of racism. A little further out, plenty of AI engineers believe that AGI would normally wipe out humanity, but they’re going to solve the alignment problem in time so no need to worry. Some contrarians like to argue that intelligence has nothing to do with power, and that superintelligence will permanently live under humanity’s thumb because we have better access to physical force. And then, some optimists believe that AI will inevitably be benevolent, so no need to worry.
If I’m understanding your comments correctly, your position is something like “ASI can and will take over the world, but we’ll be fine”, a position so unusual I didn’t even think to include it detail in my lengthy taxonomy of “everything turns out okay” arguments. I am unable to make even a basic guess as to how you arrived at the position (though I would be interested in learning).
Please notice that your position is extremely non-intuitive to basically everyone. If you start with expert consensus regarding the basis of your own position in particular, you don’t get 87% chance that you’re right, you get a look of incredulity and an arbitrarily small number. If you instead want to examine the broader case for AI risk, most of the “good arguments” are going to look more like “no really, AI keeps getting smarter, look at this graph” and things like Yudkowsky’s “The Power of Intelligence”, both of which (if I understand correctly) you already think are obviously correct.
If you want to find good arguments for “humanity is good, actually”, don’t ask AI risk people, ask random “normal” people.
My apologies if I’ve completely misunderstood your position.
(PS: Extinction markets do not work, since they can’t pay out after extinction.)