I don’t currently have a formal calculation. If you’re curious, my current P(guilty) is .95; I’m reluctant to go higher due to the structural uncertainty inherent in any “trial by media”. One way to summarize my current position is that I believe most of the court’s findings (as in the Massei report) seem basically correct, and that correcting for demographics doesn’t look to be nearly enough to swing the needle from guilt to innocence.
I don’t currently have a formal calculation. If you’re curious, my current P(guilty) is .95; I’m reluctant to go higher due to the structural uncertainty inherent in any “trial by media”. One way to summarize my current position is that I believe most of the court’s findings (as in the Massei report) seem basically correct, and that correcting for demographics doesn’t look to be nearly enough to swing the needle from guilt to innocence.