An off-hand attempt at market mechnanism to solve this. Have “resolution issue” predictors. Like “There will be a news paper article of lenght more than 20 cm written by a full time journalist about biological weapons AND the vague biological weapons question will resolve in the negative”.
An off-hand attempt at market mechnanism to solve this. Have “resolution issue” predictors. Like “There will be a news paper article of lenght more than 20 cm written by a full time journalist about biological weapons AND the vague biological weapons question will resolve in the negative”.
Maybe we should just let people bet on N/A similar to Augur (with some stronger norm of resolving N/A in ambiguous cases)