Good point. Sometimes I do both. First I bet based on my attempt to get inside the head of the resolver. Then I ask them a question. When they respond I bet further (in one direction or another) based on their answer. When the market catches up with the new information I can slowly exit the market and bet elsewhere.
You’re right that someone else can move the market based on the response first, but the site gives me a small assist: I get a notification when someone replies to my question, whereas nobody (yet) is subscribed to every comment thread. Maybe that will change with more volume. Also, since I asked the question, I probably have already thought about how different answers should move this and other markets.
Someone who was better at psychology-prediction than me has some better strategies, especially if someone else is betting on the market who thinks they are good at psychology-prediction and is not. There’s lots of profit to be made that way, but also lots of loss.
Good point. Sometimes I do both. First I bet based on my attempt to get inside the head of the resolver. Then I ask them a question. When they respond I bet further (in one direction or another) based on their answer. When the market catches up with the new information I can slowly exit the market and bet elsewhere.
You’re right that someone else can move the market based on the response first, but the site gives me a small assist: I get a notification when someone replies to my question, whereas nobody (yet) is subscribed to every comment thread. Maybe that will change with more volume. Also, since I asked the question, I probably have already thought about how different answers should move this and other markets.
Someone who was better at psychology-prediction than me has some better strategies, especially if someone else is betting on the market who thinks they are good at psychology-prediction and is not. There’s lots of profit to be made that way, but also lots of loss.