(Engineer at Manifold here.) I largely agree! Letting people make markets on anything means that many people will make poorly operationalized markets. Subjective resolution is good for bets on personal events among friends, which is an important use case, but it bad for questions with an audience bigger than that.
We need to do a better job of: 1. resolution reliability, like by adding a reputation system or letting creators delegate resolution to more objective individuals /​ courts. 2. helping users turn their vague uncertainties into objective questions—crucial but less straightforward. 3. surfacing higher quality content
(Engineer at Manifold here.) I largely agree! Letting people make markets on anything means that many people will make poorly operationalized markets. Subjective resolution is good for bets on personal events among friends, which is an important use case, but it bad for questions with an audience bigger than that.
We need to do a better job of:
1. resolution reliability, like by adding a reputation system or letting creators delegate resolution to more objective individuals /​ courts.
2. helping users turn their vague uncertainties into objective questions—crucial but less straightforward.
3. surfacing higher quality content