I know this is an estimate for imminent global nuclear war (for which I’d give a lower estimate, but even if it were 100x lower, 0.17% -- and it isn’t—that would be wholly unacceptable) but I don’t want global nuclear war in my lifetime.
So it’s necessary to also consider how various outcomes of the current war may have on the liklihood of global nuclear war in the next decades. In this vein, the best argument for ensuring that Ukraine wins in spite of Russian nuclear threats, is that allowing Russia to achieve a relatively favorable outcome on the basis of its nuclear threats incentives proliferation—of nukes, and of nuke threats. This would surely increase the liklihood of global nuclear war in the next decades, whether through error or escalation.
The best outcome of the war in my opinion would be a restart of global nuclear weapon elimination. It’s even conceivable (though I’m not wishing for it!) that escalation to use of nukes in Ukraine is the insult that the world needs to eliminate nukes, and any leader who makes any move toward getting them.
I know this is an estimate for imminent global nuclear war (for which I’d give a lower estimate, but even if it were 100x lower, 0.17% -- and it isn’t—that would be wholly unacceptable) but I don’t want global nuclear war in my lifetime.
So it’s necessary to also consider how various outcomes of the current war may have on the liklihood of global nuclear war in the next decades. In this vein, the best argument for ensuring that Ukraine wins in spite of Russian nuclear threats, is that allowing Russia to achieve a relatively favorable outcome on the basis of its nuclear threats incentives proliferation—of nukes, and of nuke threats. This would surely increase the liklihood of global nuclear war in the next decades, whether through error or escalation.
The best outcome of the war in my opinion would be a restart of global nuclear weapon elimination. It’s even conceivable (though I’m not wishing for it!) that escalation to use of nukes in Ukraine is the insult that the world needs to eliminate nukes, and any leader who makes any move toward getting them.