I view it as highly unlikely (<10%) that Putin would accept “Vietnam” without first going nuclear, because it would almost certainly result in him being overthrown and jailed or killed.
Much of the analysis hinges on this, so I think it needs to thought through more deeply. I would argue that the odds of Putin “being overthrown and jailed or killed” are higher if he gives the order to use nukes, than if he accepts “Vietnam”.
The NATO response to nukes would be catastrophic. Any remaining support from China/India would disappear. Further, the war is becoming less popular within Russia. Russia escalating to nukes and the possibility of all out war weakens Putins position both internally and externally.
My guess is that withdrawal would also be met with a certain degree of “relief” from a significant portion of the Russian population.
There is a long history of Goliaths accepting and surviving embarrassing defeats. The level of control Putin exerts internally makes it more likely he would survive and spin “Vietnam” into something not too embarrassing for him personally, instead pinning the blame on an incompetent and corrupt military. Much of the Russian news media is already taking this approach.
Much of the analysis hinges on this, so I think it needs to thought through more deeply. I would argue that the odds of Putin “being overthrown and jailed or killed” are higher if he gives the order to use nukes, than if he accepts “Vietnam”.
The NATO response to nukes would be catastrophic. Any remaining support from China/India would disappear. Further, the war is becoming less popular within Russia. Russia escalating to nukes and the possibility of all out war weakens Putins position both internally and externally.
My guess is that withdrawal would also be met with a certain degree of “relief” from a significant portion of the Russian population.
There is a long history of Goliaths accepting and surviving embarrassing defeats. The level of control Putin exerts internally makes it more likely he would survive and spin “Vietnam” into something not too embarrassing for him personally, instead pinning the blame on an incompetent and corrupt military. Much of the Russian news media is already taking this approach.