kuudes comments on Why I think there’s a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war

[kuudes]

I notice I am most confused on the Expansion → KABOOM 70%.

I have been in a model that Expansion would be limited within Ukraine, annexed territories including Crimea included. Therefore I have (completely subjectively) estimated Expansion → KABOOM to 1/​1000 or lower?

It seems to me that as Russia has moved its nuclear weapon submarines from Crimea to Russian mainland port, that this could be a shared model also in Russia.

MaxTegmark:

1. Why do you see Expansion to include attacks on Russian mainland?

2. If no attacks on Russian mainland, does this alter your previous estimation of 70% of Expansion → KABOOM?