If one person estimates the odds at a billion to one, and the other at even, you should clearly bet the middle. You can easily construct bets that offer each of them a very good deal by their lights and guarantee you a win. This won’t maximize your EV but seems pretty great if you agree with Nick.
If one person estimates the odds at a billion to one, and the other at even, you should clearly bet the middle. You can easily construct bets that offer each of them a very good deal by their lights and guarantee you a win. This won’t maximize your EV but seems pretty great if you agree with Nick.