Not sure if anyone made a review of this, but it seems to me that if you compare the past visions of the future, such as science fiction stories, we have less of everything except for computers.
Yes! J Storrs Hall did an (admittedly subjective) study of this, and argues that the probability of a futurist prediction from the 1960s being right decreases logarithmically with the energy intensity required to achieve it. This is from Appendix A in “Where’s my Flying Car?”
So it is not obvious in my opinion in which direction to update. I am tempted to say that computers evolve faster than everything else, so we should expect AI soon. On the other hand, maybe the fact that AI is currently an exception in this trend means that it will continue to be the exception. No strong opinion on this; just saying that “we are behind the predictions” does not in general apply to computer-related things.
I think this is a good point. At some point, I should put together a reference class of computer-specific futurist predictions from the past for comparison to the overall corpus.
Yes! J Storrs Hall did an (admittedly subjective) study of this, and argues that the probability of a futurist prediction from the 1960s being right decreases logarithmically with the energy intensity required to achieve it. This is from Appendix A in “Where’s my Flying Car?”
I think this is a good point. At some point, I should put together a reference class of computer-specific futurist predictions from the past for comparison to the overall corpus.