AI will probably displace a lot of cognitive workers in the near future. And physical labor might take a while to get below 25$/hr.
Most most tasks human level intelligence is not required.
Most highly valued jobs have a lot of tasks that do not require high intelligence.
Doing 95% of all tasks could be a lot sooner (10-15 years earlier) than 100%. See autonomous driving (getting to 95% safe or 99,9999 safe is a big difference).
Physical labor by robots will probably remain expensive for a long time (e.g. a robot plumber). A robot ceo is probably cheaper in the future than the robot plumber.
Just take gpt4 and fine tune it and you can automate a lot of cognitive labor already.
Deployment of cognitve work automation (a software update) is much faster that deployment of physical robots.
I agree that AI might not replace swim instructors by 2030. It is the cognitive work where the big leaps will be.
AI will probably displace a lot of cognitive workers in the near future. And physical labor might take a while to get below 25$/hr.
Most most tasks human level intelligence is not required.
Most highly valued jobs have a lot of tasks that do not require high intelligence.
Doing 95% of all tasks could be a lot sooner (10-15 years earlier) than 100%. See autonomous driving (getting to 95% safe or 99,9999 safe is a big difference).
Physical labor by robots will probably remain expensive for a long time (e.g. a robot plumber). A robot ceo is probably cheaper in the future than the robot plumber.
Just take gpt4 and fine tune it and you can automate a lot of cognitive labor already.
Deployment of cognitve work automation (a software update) is much faster that deployment of physical robots.
I agree that AI might not replace swim instructors by 2030. It is the cognitive work where the big leaps will be.