I am confused about your use of the term “calibration”. Usually it means correctly predicting the probabilities of events, as measured by frequencies. You are listing all the times you were right, without assigning your predicted probability. Do you list only high-probability predictions and conclude that you are well calibrated for, say, 95%+ predictions, since “no TAI by 2043″ is estimated to be 99%+?
Yeah, that’s a totally fair criticism. Maybe a better header would be “evidence of accuracy.” Though even that is a stretch given we’re only listing events in the numerators. Maybe “evidence we’re not crackpots”?
Edit: Probably best would be “Forecasting track record.” This is what I would have gone with if rewriting the piece today.
I am confused about your use of the term “calibration”. Usually it means correctly predicting the probabilities of events, as measured by frequencies. You are listing all the times you were right, without assigning your predicted probability. Do you list only high-probability predictions and conclude that you are well calibrated for, say, 95%+ predictions, since “no TAI by 2043″ is estimated to be 99%+?
Yeah, that’s a totally fair criticism. Maybe a better header would be “evidence of accuracy.” Though even that is a stretch given we’re only listing events in the numerators. Maybe “evidence we’re not crackpots”?
Edit: Probably best would be “Forecasting track record.” This is what I would have gone with if rewriting the piece today.
Edit 2: Updated the post.