I appreciate the offer to bet! I’m probably going to decline though—I don’t really want or need more skin-in-the-game on this question (many of my personal and professional plans assume short timelines.)
You might be interested in this post (and the bet it is about), for some commentary and issues with operationalizing bets like this.
Also, you might be able to find someone else to bet with you—I think my view is actually closer to the median among EAs / rationalists / alignment researchers than yours. For example, the Open Phil panelists judging this contest say:
Panelist credences on the probability of AGI by 2043 range from ~10% to ~45%.
I’m not convinced about the difficulty of operationalizing Eliezer’s doomer bet. Effectively, loaning money to a doomer who plans to spend it all by 2030 is, in essence, a claim on the doomer’s post-2030 human capital. The doomer thinks it’s worthless, whereas the skeptic thinks it has value. Hence, they transact.
The TAGI case seems trickier than the doomer case. Who knows what a one dollar bill will be worth in a post-TAGI world.
I appreciate the offer to bet! I’m probably going to decline though—I don’t really want or need more skin-in-the-game on this question (many of my personal and professional plans assume short timelines.)
You might be interested in this post (and the bet it is about), for some commentary and issues with operationalizing bets like this.
Also, you might be able to find someone else to bet with you—I think my view is actually closer to the median among EAs / rationalists / alignment researchers than yours. For example, the Open Phil panelists judging this contest say:
Sounds good. Can also leave money out of it and put you down for 100 pride points. :)
If so, message me your email and I’ll send you a calendar invite for a group reflection in 2043, along with a midpoint check in in 2033.
I’m not convinced about the difficulty of operationalizing Eliezer’s doomer bet. Effectively, loaning money to a doomer who plans to spend it all by 2030 is, in essence, a claim on the doomer’s post-2030 human capital. The doomer thinks it’s worthless, whereas the skeptic thinks it has value. Hence, they transact.
The TAGI case seems trickier than the doomer case. Who knows what a one dollar bill will be worth in a post-TAGI world.