Hopefully it’s clear to readers that I picked a contrarian title for fun, rather than because it’s the best description of our disagreement.
Somehow I’m suspicious that we still have pretty big implicit disagreements about what kinds of arguments are OK to make; like if someone asked you to explain Kelly to them at a party, you might still rant about how it’s not about utility, and you’d still say something along the lines of Ole Peters’ time-averaging stuff. Or maybe I’m just reacting to the way you’re not specifically saying you were wrong about any of the stuff you wrote. But I’m not saying “you’re wrong and you should recant”, I’m saying I’m hopeful that there’s still a productive disagreement between us that we can learn from. EG, if you have in you any defense of Ole Peters or similar arguments, I would like to hear it.
For sure—both my titles were clickbait compared to what I was saying.
I think if I was trying to explain Kelly, I would definitely talk in terms of time-averaging and maximising returns. I (hope) I wouldn’t do this as an “argument for” Kelly. I think if I was to make an argument for Kelly which is trying to persuade people it would be something close to my post. (Whereby I would say “Here are a bunch of nice properties Kelly has + it’s simple + there are easy modifications if it seems too aggressive” and try to gauge from their reactions what I need to talk about).
I will definitely be more careful about how I phrase this stuff though. I think if I wrote both posts again I would think harder about which bits were an “argument” and which bits were guides for intuition.
I actually wouldn’t make very much of a defence for the Peters stuff. I (personally) put little stock in it. (At least, I haven’t found the “Aha!” moment where what they seem to be selling clicks for me).
I think the most interesting thing about Kelly (which has definitely come through over our posts) is that Kelly is a very useful lens into preferences and utilities. (Regardless of which perspective you come from).
Hopefully it’s clear to readers that I picked a contrarian title for fun, rather than because it’s the best description of our disagreement.
Somehow I’m suspicious that we still have pretty big implicit disagreements about what kinds of arguments are OK to make; like if someone asked you to explain Kelly to them at a party, you might still rant about how it’s not about utility, and you’d still say something along the lines of Ole Peters’ time-averaging stuff. Or maybe I’m just reacting to the way you’re not specifically saying you were wrong about any of the stuff you wrote. But I’m not saying “you’re wrong and you should recant”, I’m saying I’m hopeful that there’s still a productive disagreement between us that we can learn from. EG, if you have in you any defense of Ole Peters or similar arguments, I would like to hear it.
For sure—both my titles were clickbait compared to what I was saying.
I think if I was trying to explain Kelly, I would definitely talk in terms of time-averaging and maximising returns. I (hope) I wouldn’t do this as an “argument for” Kelly. I think if I was to make an argument for Kelly which is trying to persuade people it would be something close to my post. (Whereby I would say “Here are a bunch of nice properties Kelly has + it’s simple + there are easy modifications if it seems too aggressive” and try to gauge from their reactions what I need to talk about).
I will definitely be more careful about how I phrase this stuff though. I think if I wrote both posts again I would think harder about which bits were an “argument” and which bits were guides for intuition.
I actually wouldn’t make very much of a defence for the Peters stuff. I (personally) put little stock in it. (At least, I haven’t found the “Aha!” moment where what they seem to be selling clicks for me).
I think the most interesting thing about Kelly (which has definitely come through over our posts) is that Kelly is a very useful lens into preferences and utilities. (Regardless of which perspective you come from).