People are used to high-precision statements given by statistics (the income in 2016 was $24.4 Million), and are used to low-precision statements given by human intuitions (From my 10 minute analysis, I think our organization will do very well next year). But there’s a really weird cultural norm against high-precision, intuitive statements. (From my 10 minute analysis, I think this company will make $28.5 Million in 2027).
Perhaps in part because of this norm, I think that there are a whole lot of gains to be made in this latter cluster. It’s not trivial to do this well, but it’s possible, and the potential value is really high.
People are used to high-precision statements given by statistics (the income in 2016 was $24.4 Million), and are used to low-precision statements given by human intuitions (From my 10 minute analysis, I think our organization will do very well next year). But there’s a really weird cultural norm against high-precision, intuitive statements. (From my 10 minute analysis, I think this company will make $28.5 Million in 2027).
Perhaps in part because of this norm, I think that there are a whole lot of gains to be made in this latter cluster. It’s not trivial to do this well, but it’s possible, and the potential value is really high.