Still doing well at GJP—my major recent achievement is that I’m no longer just at the top of my team’s scoreboard; my score is better than the median score of any other team.
I’m talking about this at various software development related conferences, because it strikes me that the mere fact that it’s possible to improve markedly at forecasting is well worth sharing. I start by encouraging folks to experience how badly calibrated we are without special training. A basic estimation exercise gets the point across well enough. I then move on to various ways practice makes perfect: PredictionBook, GJP, personal experiments, etc.
(I’m aware of Eliezer’s reservations about mentioning calibration and overconfidence without proper warning. My experience so far has been that the experiential approach, where people first experience how far off the mark their feeling of “90% certain” is, doesn’t seem to turn them into “sophisticated arguers”. This could be selection bias—so far I’ve offered this talk in small gatherings of relatively sane people I already know. I’ll be on the lookout for warning signs in larger conferences.)
Still doing well at GJP—my major recent achievement is that I’m no longer just at the top of my team’s scoreboard; my score is better than the median score of any other team.
I’m talking about this at various software development related conferences, because it strikes me that the mere fact that it’s possible to improve markedly at forecasting is well worth sharing. I start by encouraging folks to experience how badly calibrated we are without special training. A basic estimation exercise gets the point across well enough. I then move on to various ways practice makes perfect: PredictionBook, GJP, personal experiments, etc.
(I’m aware of Eliezer’s reservations about mentioning calibration and overconfidence without proper warning. My experience so far has been that the experiential approach, where people first experience how far off the mark their feeling of “90% certain” is, doesn’t seem to turn them into “sophisticated arguers”. This could be selection bias—so far I’ve offered this talk in small gatherings of relatively sane people I already know. I’ll be on the lookout for warning signs in larger conferences.)