When you write one, I would be excited to read it!
My best hypothesis at the moment is that there was substantial overlap between the people who were still betting on Trump post-election and the people who were actively looking for opportunities to disrupt the remainder of the electoral process like we saw on Jan. 6, or who assigned a higher probability to such disruptions succeeding. Such people may have felt they had “insider knowledge” that was worth betting on, and to some extent, they may have been better calibrated than the conventional wisdom.
When you write one, I would be excited to read it!
My best hypothesis at the moment is that there was substantial overlap between the people who were still betting on Trump post-election and the people who were actively looking for opportunities to disrupt the remainder of the electoral process like we saw on Jan. 6, or who assigned a higher probability to such disruptions succeeding. Such people may have felt they had “insider knowledge” that was worth betting on, and to some extent, they may have been better calibrated than the conventional wisdom.