Yes, the diagram is based on waiting another full month—April 20 - before starting any interventions to reduce this, and assuming an Rp of 2.2 or 2.4 until then. That’s not happening, because they’ve already started much of the proposed interventions, and given that, the curve will already be far lower.
And “flatten the curve” can and will be used as an interim strategy if it is ineffective—this paper assumes that they would have 6,000 people in ICUs before anyone starts asking whether they should start more.
Yes, the diagram is based on waiting another full month—April 20 - before starting any interventions to reduce this, and assuming an Rp of 2.2 or 2.4 until then. That’s not happening, because they’ve already started much of the proposed interventions, and given that, the curve will already be far lower.
And “flatten the curve” can and will be used as an interim strategy if it is ineffective—this paper assumes that they would have 6,000 people in ICUs before anyone starts asking whether they should start more.