To start, the severity estimates that Joshua assumed were worst case and are implausible. The very alarmist Fergeson et al paper has much lower numbers than Joshua’s [Joscha Bach’s] claim that “20% will develop a severe case and need medical support to survive.”
I believe the 20% figure comes from the WHO joint report which says
13.8% have severe disease (dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung infiltrates >50% of the lung field within 24-48 hours) and 6.1% are critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure).
There are a lot of modeling assumptions that go into this, and the true number is probably lower, but not so low as to invalidate Joscha’s point.
In that report, 13.8% had at least one of those symptoms—that doesn’t imply than many or most would require ICU support to survive.
And event if we assume they would all die, which is wrong, Wuhan was an unlikeley-to-be-repeated worst case scenario—not just because of the medical overload with no warning, or the significant under-diagnosis of lightly symptomatic younger patients inflating the severe case percentage, but because they didn’t realize this was a severe disease for the elderly until at least weeks into the spread. Elderly people globally are now being kept largely isolated, and will be treated aggressively when they get sick initially, instead of treating it like influenza until they are nearly dead.
The population of the Lombardy region is slightly smaller than that of Wuhan, and they are reporting 3x as many daily deahts as China did during their peak.
I believe the 20% figure comes from the WHO joint report which says
There are a lot of modeling assumptions that go into this, and the true number is probably lower, but not so low as to invalidate Joscha’s point.
In that report, 13.8% had at least one of those symptoms—that doesn’t imply than many or most would require ICU support to survive.
And event if we assume they would all die, which is wrong, Wuhan was an unlikeley-to-be-repeated worst case scenario—not just because of the medical overload with no warning, or the significant under-diagnosis of lightly symptomatic younger patients inflating the severe case percentage, but because they didn’t realize this was a severe disease for the elderly until at least weeks into the spread. Elderly people globally are now being kept largely isolated, and will be treated aggressively when they get sick initially, instead of treating it like influenza until they are nearly dead.
If Wuhan was a worst case scenario, how come Italy has now overtaken it in deaths? (3400 Vs 3200)
The population of Italy is several times higher, and the death rate per case is still significantly lower.
The population of the Lombardy region is slightly smaller than that of Wuhan, and they are reporting 3x as many daily deahts as China did during their peak.