If the drugs save 80% of critically ill people from dying, then even if the remaining 20% overload the hospital system it might still be worth not trying to flatten the curve, just to avoid the economic damage from the lockdowns.
One would have to do a detailed analysis, but right now I seem to be getting the impression that the drugs actually aren’t that good.
Anyway I still stand behind the point that there is likely to be a strategy bifurcation where it’s best to either go pretty all-in on containment or go pretty all-in on herd immunity/deliberate infection, depending on just how bad it would be.
A 0.1% chance of death is worth about 1-3 months of lockdown, but age-weighting of deaths towards older people and lockdown damage skews this.
Without any change in the numbers I definitely still support containment.
If the drugs save 80% of critically ill people from dying, then even if the remaining 20% overload the hospital system it might still be worth not trying to flatten the curve, just to avoid the economic damage from the lockdowns.
One would have to do a detailed analysis, but right now I seem to be getting the impression that the drugs actually aren’t that good.
Anyway I still stand behind the point that there is likely to be a strategy bifurcation where it’s best to either go pretty all-in on containment or go pretty all-in on herd immunity/deliberate infection, depending on just how bad it would be.
A 0.1% chance of death is worth about 1-3 months of lockdown, but age-weighting of deaths towards older people and lockdown damage skews this.
Without any change in the numbers I definitely still support containment.