Let’s consider those 3^^^3 other people. Choose one of those people at random. What’s your strength of belief that that particular person can tip an outcome that affects > 0.0001% of those 3^^^3 other people?
Putting it another way: do you expect that the average beliefs among those 3^^^3 people would be more accurate if each person believed that there was a 1/3^^^3 chance that they could determine the fate of a substantial fraction of the people in their reference class, or if each person believed there was a 1/1000000 chance that they could determine the fate of a substantial fraction of the people in their reference class?
the universe going on for infinitely long seems kinda possible
I think in infinite universes you need to start factoring in stuff like the simulation hypothesis.
Let’s consider those 3^^^3 other people. Choose one of those people at random. What’s your strength of belief that that particular person can tip an outcome that affects > 0.0001% of those 3^^^3 other people?
Putting it another way: do you expect that the average beliefs among those 3^^^3 people would be more accurate if each person believed that there was a 1/3^^^3 chance that they could determine the fate of a substantial fraction of the people in their reference class, or if each person believed there was a 1/1000000 chance that they could determine the fate of a substantial fraction of the people in their reference class?
I think in infinite universes you need to start factoring in stuff like the simulation hypothesis.