It’s not clear to me that the system wouldn’t collapse. The number of demand side, supply side, cultural & political changes may be beyond the adaptive capacity of the system.
Some jobs would be maintained b/c of human preference. Human preference has many aspects like customer preference, distrust of AI, networking, regulation etc, so human preference is potentially quite substantial. (Efficiency is maybe also a factor; even if AI is super human intelligent the energy consumption & size of the hardware may still be an issue especially for AI embodied in a robot). But that stills seems like huge job loss.
So as we head in that direction there’s going to be job loss plus the fear of job loss—that’s likely to pull down demand leading to even more job loss. But it’s not a typical demand driven recession b/c 1) jobs are not expected to return, 2) possible supply side issues from transition to AI, 3) paradoxical disinclination to work b/c jobs are expected to disappear soon or b/c of ‘UBI’ & 4) cultural shock from AI & ensuing events.
How bad could this be? A vicious cycle of culture, economics & politics can be quite vicious. The number of people who quit critical jobs prior to those jobs being properly automated is an important variable. ‘UBI’ is not obviously helpful in that regard.
Addendum
The comment concerns transition to a post ASI economy & possible failures along the way. Assuming that ASI already exists, as Satron has done, removes most of the interesting & relevant aspects of the question.
A career or job that looks like it’s soon going to be eliminated becomes less desirable for that very reason. What cousin_it said is also true, but that’s an additional/different problem.
It’s not clear to me that the system wouldn’t collapse. The number of demand side, supply side, cultural & political changes may be beyond the adaptive capacity of the system.
Some jobs would be maintained b/c of human preference. Human preference has many aspects like customer preference, distrust of AI, networking, regulation etc, so human preference is potentially quite substantial. (Efficiency is maybe also a factor; even if AI is super human intelligent the energy consumption & size of the hardware may still be an issue especially for AI embodied in a robot). But that stills seems like huge job loss.
So as we head in that direction there’s going to be job loss plus the fear of job loss—that’s likely to pull down demand leading to even more job loss. But it’s not a typical demand driven recession b/c 1) jobs are not expected to return, 2) possible supply side issues from transition to AI, 3) paradoxical disinclination to work b/c jobs are expected to disappear soon or b/c of ‘UBI’ & 4) cultural shock from AI & ensuing events.
How bad could this be? A vicious cycle of culture, economics & politics can be quite vicious. The number of people who quit critical jobs prior to those jobs being properly automated is an important variable. ‘UBI’ is not obviously helpful in that regard.
Addendum
The comment concerns transition to a post ASI economy & possible failures along the way. Assuming that ASI already exists, as Satron has done, removes most of the interesting & relevant aspects of the question.
Wait now, why do you think people will quit jobs because of fear of job loss? This was all too sensible until that turn.
I wonder if your comment is being downvote over that puzzling turn, or because people just don’t like the rest of the grim logic.
I think they meant that when people are afraid to lose their jobs, they spend less, leading to less demand for other people’s work.
A career or job that looks like it’s soon going to be eliminated becomes less desirable for that very reason. What cousin_it said is also true, but that’s an additional/different problem.