The threat model here is that if any of those jobs are automated, then everyone who is currently employed will have to compete with very large numbers of Administrative assistants, Accounting clerks, Web designers, Graphic designers, and Writers, who are extremely desperate for positions, and the few of them who succeed will be the ones willing to work substantially longer and harder than most of the people currently employed.
With Web designers, Graphic designers, and Writers, that also means a substantial risk that a large people applying for EA/AI safety jobs will be very desperate, which would mean that many of them would instinctively get very good at intelligently goodharting to get at the jobs, due to broader culture shifts in a dramatically more competitive work environment.
I don’t question that a web designer armed with GPT-4 could make the work of a small team of web designers. But in this scenario there will still be human web designers, and the resulting technological unemployment would not be fundamentally different from the older forms of technological unemployment where old jobs shrink and new jobs (AI sheperds?) appear. What I am questioning is the scenario where a lot of jobs suddenly disappear altogether rather than being augmented with LLMs.
The threat model here is that if any of those jobs are automated, then everyone who is currently employed will have to compete with very large numbers of Administrative assistants, Accounting clerks, Web designers, Graphic designers, and Writers, who are extremely desperate for positions, and the few of them who succeed will be the ones willing to work substantially longer and harder than most of the people currently employed.
With Web designers, Graphic designers, and Writers, that also means a substantial risk that a large people applying for EA/AI safety jobs will be very desperate, which would mean that many of them would instinctively get very good at intelligently goodharting to get at the jobs, due to broader culture shifts in a dramatically more competitive work environment.
I don’t question that a web designer armed with GPT-4 could make the work of a small team of web designers. But in this scenario there will still be human web designers, and the resulting technological unemployment would not be fundamentally different from the older forms of technological unemployment where old jobs shrink and new jobs (AI sheperds?) appear. What I am questioning is the scenario where a lot of jobs suddenly disappear altogether rather than being augmented with LLMs.