Eliezer’s The Apocalypse Bet, or more generally, any decision on an interest rate for a long-term loan. Robin pointed out that it is difficult to disentangle the different factors that set an interest rate, and Eliezer has rejected this idea. (This relates to the second-to-last paragraph above, about saving for retirement.)
Luke suggests: “In 2040, we will ask the following list of 20 (younger) people, whose rationality we currently respect fairly highly, whether they think WBE or de novo AGI is more likely to come first.”
Some more bets:
Eliezer’s The Apocalypse Bet, or more generally, any decision on an interest rate for a long-term loan. Robin pointed out that it is difficult to disentangle the different factors that set an interest rate, and Eliezer has rejected this idea. (This relates to the second-to-last paragraph above, about saving for retirement.)
Luke suggests: “In 2040, we will ask the following list of 20 (younger) people, whose rationality we currently respect fairly highly, whether they think WBE or de novo AGI is more likely to come first.”