What do you think are the best and worse case scenarios for prediction markets?
I don’t think that long-term prediction markets will have earthshattering consequences given that they will complement the existing financial markets.
Worst case: the US government (and others) continues to insist they’re illegal gambling, they don’t take off, nothing happens. I’m not considering movie-type scenarios in which an evil mastermind manipulates the prediction markets to fool the good guys and TAKE OVER THE WORLD!!!
Best case: the prediction markets do take off, become popular, continue to be independent and reasonably resistant to manipulation, and provide valuable data about the revealed predictions of the public.
I don’t think that long-term prediction markets will have earthshattering consequences given that they will complement the existing financial markets.
Worst case: the US government (and others) continues to insist they’re illegal gambling, they don’t take off, nothing happens. I’m not considering movie-type scenarios in which an evil mastermind manipulates the prediction markets to fool the good guys and TAKE OVER THE WORLD!!!
Best case: the prediction markets do take off, become popular, continue to be independent and reasonably resistant to manipulation, and provide valuable data about the revealed predictions of the public.
Nothing horribly exciting here :-)