What’s the basis for believing that intelligent alien life is likely to exist elsewhere in the universe? We have one data point for coordinated intelligent life coming about, and we don’t even know how much additional extinction risk lies between us and becoming interstellar.
I don’t know how you would even begin to try and calculate those odds.
From what I’ve seen the arguments for alien life come down to their being a lot of planets and a lot of time, but we have no idea what number we’re balancing with that. There is no way to establish a lower-bound on how unlikely the emergence of life is. The only evidence is an absence of evidence.
I am willing to bet 3% of my net worth that we will not be contacted by aliens in the next 1000 years.
What’s the basis for believing that intelligent alien life is likely to exist elsewhere in the universe? We have one data point for coordinated intelligent life coming about, and we don’t even know how much additional extinction risk lies between us and becoming interstellar.
I don’t know how you would even begin to try and calculate those odds.
From what I’ve seen the arguments for alien life come down to their being a lot of planets and a lot of time, but we have no idea what number we’re balancing with that. There is no way to establish a lower-bound on how unlikely the emergence of life is. The only evidence is an absence of evidence.
I am willing to bet 3% of my net worth that we will not be contacted by aliens in the next 1000 years.