I’m glad to see rationalists getting published in mainstream media outlets. And I appreciated your reference to attentional bias.
However, the article seemed too simplistic overall. For example, the idea that attacking Islam is playing into terrorists’ hands is almost a cliche. And the policy conclusions seem extremely bland and also not particularly rationalist.
For an idea of what an explicitly rationalist and non-obvious policy conclusion might look like, imagine a counterterrorism foreign policy that is actually randomized: in 90% of situations we do nothing in response to terror attacks, but 10% of the time we topple a regime. The randomization prevents ISIS and other actors from manipulating us (I’m not saying this is a good idea, just that it builds on rationalist (game theory) concepts and is nonobvious).
Another policy response would be to fight attentional bias by imposing certain restrictions on media reporting of terror attacks. For example, we could place a 6-month moratorium on detailed or graphic reporting of attacks, allowing only simple, factual information to be published in the immediate aftermath of an attack (“On November 13, more than 100 and less than 200 people were killed in Paris by unidentified assailants. Police responded quickly, and the attackers have now all been arrested or killed. Authorities recommend a general increase in vigilance, but no other interruptions are necessary. Details of the attack will be published in March 2016”). Again, I’m not saying this is a good idea, just that it is nonobvious and builds on rationalist concepts.
Thanks for the good words about publishing in media venues!
The article is meant to be simplistic, as it’s talking in a language oriented for a broad audience, and has a 700-word limit.
I don’t have a value of non-obviousness, just of rational decision making. To me, rational decision-making implies using a process that involves determining our goals, weighing the best ways of getting there without letting our emotions tip the scale, and making the best decisions to reach our goals. This is what I conveyed in the article, I hope :-)
So, you suggested two clearly bad ideas which “build on rationalist concepts”. Is that supposed to promote these “rationalist concepts”? Because the obvious conclusion would be that you should build on something else.
I’m glad to see rationalists getting published in mainstream media outlets. And I appreciated your reference to attentional bias.
However, the article seemed too simplistic overall. For example, the idea that attacking Islam is playing into terrorists’ hands is almost a cliche. And the policy conclusions seem extremely bland and also not particularly rationalist.
For an idea of what an explicitly rationalist and non-obvious policy conclusion might look like, imagine a counterterrorism foreign policy that is actually randomized: in 90% of situations we do nothing in response to terror attacks, but 10% of the time we topple a regime. The randomization prevents ISIS and other actors from manipulating us (I’m not saying this is a good idea, just that it builds on rationalist (game theory) concepts and is nonobvious).
Another policy response would be to fight attentional bias by imposing certain restrictions on media reporting of terror attacks. For example, we could place a 6-month moratorium on detailed or graphic reporting of attacks, allowing only simple, factual information to be published in the immediate aftermath of an attack (“On November 13, more than 100 and less than 200 people were killed in Paris by unidentified assailants. Police responded quickly, and the attackers have now all been arrested or killed. Authorities recommend a general increase in vigilance, but no other interruptions are necessary. Details of the attack will be published in March 2016”). Again, I’m not saying this is a good idea, just that it is nonobvious and builds on rationalist concepts.
Thanks for the good words about publishing in media venues!
The article is meant to be simplistic, as it’s talking in a language oriented for a broad audience, and has a 700-word limit.
I don’t have a value of non-obviousness, just of rational decision making. To me, rational decision-making implies using a process that involves determining our goals, weighing the best ways of getting there without letting our emotions tip the scale, and making the best decisions to reach our goals. This is what I conveyed in the article, I hope :-)
So, you suggested two clearly bad ideas which “build on rationalist concepts”. Is that supposed to promote these “rationalist concepts”? Because the obvious conclusion would be that you should build on something else.