I would say that a ground campaign would defeat IS in Syria and Iraq. I cannot be bothered to dig for a definite source for that, but USA, EU military is vastly better than IS and I don’t want to waste my time arguing with anyone who thinks that an America/EU/Russian alliance would lose a ground war against IS in Iraq and Syria.
So IS would be left as a guerilla operation in that part of the world, rather than a fully fledged state. They would still kill people, but guerilla methods are less effective than what you can do with full control.
The downside is that the civilized world is bad at nationbuilding—we failed in Afghanistan and to some extent in Iraq. Obviously that would leave an opening for IS to come back again in 25 years, like the Taliban are probably going to in Afghanistan.
But this debate has already progressed beyond the article in the OP.
Yes US/EU troops are superior but as afghanistan and iraq showed, simply having those troops in the country does not solve your problems. Military victory, in the sense that a nominally friendly government ends up in control can be achieved without boots on the ground, it’s far easier for friendly groups to win with air support and supplies but you have to avoid public perception that the new state is just a puppet.
I would say that a ground campaign would defeat IS in Syria and Iraq. I cannot be bothered to dig for a definite source for that, but USA, EU military is vastly better than IS and I don’t want to waste my time arguing with anyone who thinks that an America/EU/Russian alliance would lose a ground war against IS in Iraq and Syria.
Then why didn’t the US win against the groups that are precursors to daesh when they had boots on the ground in Iraq?
They didn’t beat Germans in Germany. They beat the German army outside of it and the Germans admitted defeat. The Sunni groups that are precursors of deash and that were active before the US left Iraq were never beaten to defeat.
The question is what you mean by “win”. It would not be very reasonable to describe reality with the statement that the US lost a war against some group or groups in Iraq. But they didn’t wipe those people out, and consequently those people can still do things. The US would win in Syria if they did the same thing, and in the same sense, and with the same sort of consequences.
Tacitus said that the Romans were accustomed to “make a desert and call it peace.” If the US wanted to win a war in that sense, they could. But they don’t want to, and won’t, basically because pretty much everyone considers it to be immoral. But as long as you don’t do that, there will still be people there with the same ideas and intentions, and some of those people will act on those ideas and intentions.
I would say that a ground campaign would defeat IS in Syria and Iraq. I cannot be bothered to dig for a definite source for that, but USA, EU military is vastly better than IS and I don’t want to waste my time arguing with anyone who thinks that an America/EU/Russian alliance would lose a ground war against IS in Iraq and Syria.
So IS would be left as a guerilla operation in that part of the world, rather than a fully fledged state. They would still kill people, but guerilla methods are less effective than what you can do with full control.
The downside is that the civilized world is bad at nationbuilding—we failed in Afghanistan and to some extent in Iraq. Obviously that would leave an opening for IS to come back again in 25 years, like the Taliban are probably going to in Afghanistan.
But this debate has already progressed beyond the article in the OP.
Yes US/EU troops are superior but as afghanistan and iraq showed, simply having those troops in the country does not solve your problems. Military victory, in the sense that a nominally friendly government ends up in control can be achieved without boots on the ground, it’s far easier for friendly groups to win with air support and supplies but you have to avoid public perception that the new state is just a puppet.
Then why didn’t the US win against the groups that are precursors to daesh when they had boots on the ground in Iraq?
Did the Allies win WW I?
I think it is pretty obvious that by most measures that the central powers did not win the war, but did that victory create a lasting peace?
It obviously didn’t. The way the “victory” in WW I was handled pretty much set the stage for WW II.
It is the same way in the middle east, you can have a “victory” or “win” but that does not mean long lasting peace.
They didn’t beat Germans in Germany. They beat the German army outside of it and the Germans admitted defeat. The Sunni groups that are precursors of deash and that were active before the US left Iraq were never beaten to defeat.
The question is what you mean by “win”. It would not be very reasonable to describe reality with the statement that the US lost a war against some group or groups in Iraq. But they didn’t wipe those people out, and consequently those people can still do things. The US would win in Syria if they did the same thing, and in the same sense, and with the same sort of consequences.
Tacitus said that the Romans were accustomed to “make a desert and call it peace.” If the US wanted to win a war in that sense, they could. But they don’t want to, and won’t, basically because pretty much everyone considers it to be immoral. But as long as you don’t do that, there will still be people there with the same ideas and intentions, and some of those people will act on those ideas and intentions.