I hear you about using mathematical modeling. However, I’m talking about quick, intuitive, System 1 probabilistic estimates here, more Fermi style than anything else. Remember, the goal is to convey to a broad audience that they can do probabilistic estimates, too. Let’s not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
I’d prefer they first figure out the limits of their competence before starting to act on their Fermi estimates. And Tetlock’s sample is not quite general public.
I hear you about using mathematical modeling. However, I’m talking about quick, intuitive, System 1 probabilistic estimates here, more Fermi style than anything else. Remember, the goal is to convey to a broad audience that they can do probabilistic estimates, too. Let’s not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
But can they do good probabilistic estimates? A little knowledge is a dangerous thing...
I’d prefer they do some than not at all. Then, they would improve over time, as research by Tetlock and others shows.
I’d prefer they first figure out the limits of their competence before starting to act on their Fermi estimates. And Tetlock’s sample is not quite general public.
I guess we have different preferences. I’d rather that people experiment and learn by doing.
Whether experimenting is a good thing depends on the cost of failure.
Also, on whether you can distinguish success from failure.