Dawkins: We could devise a little experiment where we take your forecasts and then give some of them straight, give some of them randomized, sometimes give Virgo the Pisces forecast et cetera. And then ask people how accurate they were.
Astrologer: Yes, that would be a perverse thing to do, wouldn’t it.
Dawkins: It would be—yes, but I mean wouldn’t that be a good test?
Astrologer: A test of what?
Dawkins: Well, how accurate you are.
Astrologer: I think that your intention there is mischief, and I’d think what you’d then get back is mischief.
Dawkins: Well my intention would not be mischief, my intention would be experimental test. A scientific test. But even if it was mischief, how could that possibly influence it?
Astrologer: (Pause.) I think it does influence it. I think whenever you do things with astrology, intentions are strong.
Dawkins: I’d have thought you’d be eager.
Astrologer: (Laughs.)
Dawkins: The fact that you’re not makes me think you don’t really in your heart of hearts believe it. I don’t think you really are prepared to put your reputation on the line.
Astrologer: I just don’t believe in the experiment, Richard, it’s that simple.
Dawkins: Well you’re in a kind of no-lose situation then, aren’t you.
To correctly anticipate, in advance, which experimental results shall need to be excused, the dragon-claimant must (a) possess an accurate anticipation-controlling model somewhere in his mind, and (b) act cognitively to protect either (b1) his free-floating propositional belief in the dragon or (b2) his self-image of believing in the dragon.
Richard Dawkins talking to an astrologer. Best part at 10m28s.
Transcript:
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Dawkins: We could devise a little experiment where we take your forecasts and then give some of them straight, give some of them randomized, sometimes give Virgo the Pisces forecast et cetera. And then ask people how accurate they were.
Astrologer: Yes, that would be a perverse thing to do, wouldn’t it.
Dawkins: It would be—yes, but I mean wouldn’t that be a good test?
Astrologer: A test of what?
Dawkins: Well, how accurate you are.
Astrologer: I think that your intention there is mischief, and I’d think what you’d then get back is mischief.
Dawkins: Well my intention would not be mischief, my intention would be experimental test. A scientific test. But even if it was mischief, how could that possibly influence it?
Astrologer: (Pause.) I think it does influence it. I think whenever you do things with astrology, intentions are strong.
Dawkins: I’d have thought you’d be eager.
Astrologer: (Laughs.)
Dawkins: The fact that you’re not makes me think you don’t really in your heart of hearts believe it. I don’t think you really are prepared to put your reputation on the line.
Astrologer: I just don’t believe in the experiment, Richard, it’s that simple.
Dawkins: Well you’re in a kind of no-lose situation then, aren’t you.
Astrologer: I hope so.
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Dawkins: “Well… you’re sort of in a no-lose situation, then.”
Astrologer: “I certainly hope so.”
A fine example of:
That video has been taken down, but you can skip to around 5 minutes into this video to watch the astrology bit.
The linked video is set to private? I can’t view it. Not a big deal, the transcript is almost as good.
Now you’ve gone and depressed me.