Yes, it should, if it is known that Charlie hasn’t previously “selected” any other people who got precisely 25.
The probability of being selected (taken before you have found any fish) p[chosen] is approximately equal regardless of whether there are 25% or 75% big fish.
And the probability of you being selected if you didn’t find 25 p[chosen|not25] is zero
Therefore, the probability of you being selected, given as you have found 25 big fish p[chosen|found25] is approximately equal to p[chosen]/p[found25]
The information of the fact you’ve been chosen directly cancels out the information from the fact you found 25 big fish.
Yes, it should, if it is known that Charlie hasn’t previously “selected” any other people who got precisely 25.
The probability of being selected (taken before you have found any fish) p[chosen] is approximately equal regardless of whether there are 25% or 75% big fish.
And the probability of you being selected if you didn’t find 25 p[chosen|not25] is zero
Therefore, the probability of you being selected, given as you have found 25 big fish p[chosen|found25] is approximately equal to p[chosen]/p[found25]
The information of the fact you’ve been chosen directly cancels out the information from the fact you found 25 big fish.