The model for dunking on doctors was something like: there is a limited number of doctor positions, so even if the hypothetical best doctor ever chooses a different career, it will not mean fewer doctors; it will just mean that the second best doctor will take their place instead. But the second best doctor ever is also a very good doctor, so the difference in the outcome will be very small.
Now, I am not sure if I remember the argument correctly. But if I do, it is obviously flawed. Because not only the previous job of doctor#1 is now taken by doctor#2, but also the previous job of doctor#2 is now taken by doctor#3, etc. Until we reach the hypothetical limit, and the previous job of doctor#N is now taken by a person who previously wouldn’t get the license, but now they will become doctor#N+1. So the overall change for the field of medicine is losing doctor#1 and getting doctor#N+1 (and shifting the remaining doctors). The difference between doctor#1 (the best doctor ever) and doctor#N+1 (who barely gets the license), multiplied by the length of their careers, could indeed mean a difference of many lives saved. It is just not really visible, because all those lives are not saved at the same place, but distributed along the chain.
The same reasoning also applies to the effective altruists, of course. It’s just, there is no guarantee that the hypothetical best doctor ever will become the most impactful effective altruist ever. They might as well become a mediocre one.
The model for dunking on doctors was something like: there is a limited number of doctor positions, so even if the hypothetical best doctor ever chooses a different career, it will not mean fewer doctors; it will just mean that the second best doctor will take their place instead. But the second best doctor ever is also a very good doctor, so the difference in the outcome will be very small.
Now, I am not sure if I remember the argument correctly. But if I do, it is obviously flawed. Because not only the previous job of doctor#1 is now taken by doctor#2, but also the previous job of doctor#2 is now taken by doctor#3, etc. Until we reach the hypothetical limit, and the previous job of doctor#N is now taken by a person who previously wouldn’t get the license, but now they will become doctor#N+1. So the overall change for the field of medicine is losing doctor#1 and getting doctor#N+1 (and shifting the remaining doctors). The difference between doctor#1 (the best doctor ever) and doctor#N+1 (who barely gets the license), multiplied by the length of their careers, could indeed mean a difference of many lives saved. It is just not really visible, because all those lives are not saved at the same place, but distributed along the chain.
The same reasoning also applies to the effective altruists, of course. It’s just, there is no guarantee that the hypothetical best doctor ever will become the most impactful effective altruist ever. They might as well become a mediocre one.