Worth looking at the effectiveness of lobbying to estimate how hard it is to influence policy. From Wikipedia (emphasis mine):
An estimate from 2007 reported that more than 15,000 federal lobbyists were based in Washington, DC; another estimate from 2011 suggested that the count of registered lobbyists who have actually lobbied was closer to 12,000. While numbers like these suggest that lobbying is a widespread activity, most accounts suggest that the Washington lobbying industry is an exclusive one run by a few well-connected firms and players, with serious barriers to entry for firms wanting to get into the lobbying business, since it requires them to have been “roaming the halls of Congress for years and years.”
The general consensus view is that lobbying generally works overall in achieving sought-after results for clients, particularly since it has become so prevalent with substantial and growing budgets, although there are dissenting views. A study by the investment-research firm Strategas which was cited in The Economist and the Washington Post compared the 50 firms that spent the most on lobbying relative to their assets, and compared their financial performance against that of the S&P 500 in the stock market; the study concluded that spending on lobbying was a “spectacular investment” yielding “blistering” returns comparable to a high-flying hedge fund, even despite the financial downturn of the past few years. A 2009 study by University of Kansas professor Raquel Meyer Alexander suggested that lobbying brought a substantial return on investment. A 2011 meta-analysis of previous research findings found a positive correlation between corporate political activity and firm performance. There are numerous reports that the National Rifle Association or NRA successfully influenced 45 senators to block a proposed rule to regulate assault weapons, despite strong public support for gun control. The NRA spends heavily to influence gun policy; it gives $3 million annually to the re-election campaigns of congresspersons directly, and gives additional money to PACs and others to influence legislation indirectly, according to the BBC in 2016.
There is widespread agreement that a key ingredient in effective lobbying is money. This view is shared by players in the lobbying industry.
Lobbying is widespread throughout the U.S. political system; previous research puts lobbying expenditures at the federal level at approximately five times those of political action committee (PAC) campaign contributions. For instance, in 2012, organized interest groups spent $3.5 billion annually lobbying the federal government, compared to approximately $1.55 billion in campaign contributions from PACs and other organizations over the two-year 2011-2012 election cycle.
Corporations and trade associations comprise the vast majority of lobbying expenditures by interest groups — more than 84% at the federal level — compared with issue-ideology membership groups, which makes up only 2% of these expenditures.
While lobbying is presumed to be influential, the actual rate of firms engaging in lobbying is relatively low — approximately 10% of all firms.
Overall this suggests that (a) in aggregate, lobbying has a large impact on US policy, and (b) sponsoring 1% of the lobbying activity in the US would take about 120 average lobbyists and $35M/year. Since AI is one issue among many, 1% is much more lobbying activity than AI policy advocates could currently make use of, but this might change when AI becomes more important in the economy. Obviously, spending this much on lobbying before having a much clearer picture of what policies would actually help would be a mistake.
A study by the investment-research firm Strategas which was cited in The Economist and the Washington Post compared the 50 firms that spent the most on lobbying relative to their assets, and compared their financial performance against that of the S&P 500 in the stock market; the study concluded that spending on lobbying was a “spectacular investment” yielding “blistering” returns comparable to a high-flying hedge fund, even despite the financial downturn of the past few years.
I think I read this research while I was a Strategas client; if I’m remembering it correctly it was extremely poorly done. Short back test (just a few years), garden of forking paths, etc. Most sell-side research is not epistemically rigourous and Strategas is not one of the better firms. I would not put much weight on this research.
There is widespread agreement that a key ingredient in effective lobbying is money. This view is shared by players in the lobbying industry.
Well of course lobbyists would say they’re worth the money!
Worth noting that lobbying isn’t just bribery—it’s also about being able to connect lawmakers to experts (or, if you’re less ethical, “experts”). Yes, you need to do the “real work” of having policy positions and reading proposed legislation etc. But you also need to invest money and effort into communication, networking, and generally becoming a Schelling point—experts need to know who you are so they can become part of your talent pool, and lawmakers need to know that you have expertise on some set of topics. This is probably the best excuse for all those fancy dinners we associate with lobbying firms—it’s not bribery, it’s advertising. Meanwhile the lobbying firm needs to know who is receptive to them, and try to work with those people.
Worth looking at the effectiveness of lobbying to estimate how hard it is to influence policy. From Wikipedia (emphasis mine):
From this page:
Overall this suggests that (a) in aggregate, lobbying has a large impact on US policy, and (b) sponsoring 1% of the lobbying activity in the US would take about 120 average lobbyists and $35M/year. Since AI is one issue among many, 1% is much more lobbying activity than AI policy advocates could currently make use of, but this might change when AI becomes more important in the economy. Obviously, spending this much on lobbying before having a much clearer picture of what policies would actually help would be a mistake.
I think I read this research while I was a Strategas client; if I’m remembering it correctly it was extremely poorly done. Short back test (just a few years), garden of forking paths, etc. Most sell-side research is not epistemically rigourous and Strategas is not one of the better firms. I would not put much weight on this research.
Well of course lobbyists would say they’re worth the money!
Worth noting that lobbying isn’t just bribery—it’s also about being able to connect lawmakers to experts (or, if you’re less ethical, “experts”). Yes, you need to do the “real work” of having policy positions and reading proposed legislation etc. But you also need to invest money and effort into communication, networking, and generally becoming a Schelling point—experts need to know who you are so they can become part of your talent pool, and lawmakers need to know that you have expertise on some set of topics. This is probably the best excuse for all those fancy dinners we associate with lobbying firms—it’s not bribery, it’s advertising. Meanwhile the lobbying firm needs to know who is receptive to them, and try to work with those people.