In terms of preserving a status quo in an adversarial conflict, I think a useful dimension to consider is First Strike vs. Second Strike. The basic idea is that technologies which incentivise a preemptive strike are offensive, whereas technologies which enable retaliation are defensive.
However, not all status-quo preserving technologies are defensive. Consider disruptive[1] innovations which flip the gameboard. Disruptive technologies are status-destroying, but can advantage the incumbent or the underdog. They can make attacks more or less profitable. I think “disruptive vs sustaining” is a different dimension that should be considered orthogonal to “offensive vs defensive”.
But I haven’t seen as much literature around what substitutes would look like for cyberattacks, sanctions, landmines (e.g. ones that deactivate automatically after a period of time or biodegrade), missiles etc.
Here’s a video by Perun, a popular YouTuber who makes hour-long PowerPoint lectures about defense economics. In it, cyberattack itself is considered a substitute technology used to achieve political aims through an aggressive act less provocative than war.
They might help countries to organise more complex treaties more easily, thereby ensuring that countries got closer to their ideal arrangements between two parties…. It might be that there are situations in which two actors are in conflict, but the optimal arrangement between the two groups relies on coordination from a third or a fourth, or many more. The systems could organise these multilateral agreements more cost-effectively.
Smart treaties have existed for centuries, though they didn’t involve AI. Western powers used them to coordinate against Asian conquests. Of course, they didn’t find the optimal outcome for all parties. Instead, they enabled enemies to coordinate the exploitation of a mutual adversary.
I’m using the term “disruptive” the way Clayton Christenson defined it in his book The Innnovator’s Dilemmma where “disruptive technologies” are juxtiposed against a “sustaining technology”.
In terms of preserving a status quo in an adversarial conflict, I think a useful dimension to consider is First Strike vs. Second Strike. The basic idea is that technologies which incentivise a preemptive strike are offensive, whereas technologies which enable retaliation are defensive.
However, not all status-quo preserving technologies are defensive. Consider disruptive[1] innovations which flip the gameboard. Disruptive technologies are status-destroying, but can advantage the incumbent or the underdog. They can make attacks more or less profitable. I think “disruptive vs sustaining” is a different dimension that should be considered orthogonal to “offensive vs defensive”.
Here’s a video by Perun, a popular YouTuber who makes hour-long PowerPoint lectures about defense economics. In it, cyberattack itself is considered a substitute technology used to achieve political aims through an aggressive act less provocative than war.
Smart treaties have existed for centuries, though they didn’t involve AI. Western powers used them to coordinate against Asian conquests. Of course, they didn’t find the optimal outcome for all parties. Instead, they enabled enemies to coordinate the exploitation of a mutual adversary.
I’m using the term “disruptive” the way Clayton Christenson defined it in his book The Innnovator’s Dilemmma where “disruptive technologies” are juxtiposed against a “sustaining technology”.