To take some version of the opposite side: If we managed to figure out that, say, there was an X% chance per year of lab-leaking something like COVID, and a Y% chance per year of natural origin + wet market crossover producing something like COVID… that would determine the expected-value badness of lab practices and wet market practices, and the respective urgencies of doing something about them. It wouldn’t matter which specific thing happened in 2019. (For an analogy, if the brakes on your car stopped working for 30 seconds while you were on the highway, this would be extremely concerning and warrant fixing, regardless of whether you managed to avoid crashing in that particular incident.)
That said, it seems unlikely that we’ll get decent estimates on X and Y, and much more unlikely that there would be mainstream consensus on such estimates. More likely, if COVID is proven to have come from a lab leak, then people will do something serious about bio-lab safety, and if it’s proven not to have come from a lab leak, then people will do much less about bio-lab safety; this one data point will be taken as strong evidence about the danger. So, getting an answer is potentially useful for political purposes.
(Remember: SARS 1 leaked from a lab 4 times. That seems to me like plenty of evidence that lab leaks are a real danger, unless you think labs have substantially improved practices since then.)
To take some version of the opposite side: If we managed to figure out that, say, there was an X% chance per year of lab-leaking something like COVID, and a Y% chance per year of natural origin + wet market crossover producing something like COVID… that would determine the expected-value badness of lab practices and wet market practices, and the respective urgencies of doing something about them. It wouldn’t matter which specific thing happened in 2019. (For an analogy, if the brakes on your car stopped working for 30 seconds while you were on the highway, this would be extremely concerning and warrant fixing, regardless of whether you managed to avoid crashing in that particular incident.)
That said, it seems unlikely that we’ll get decent estimates on X and Y, and much more unlikely that there would be mainstream consensus on such estimates. More likely, if COVID is proven to have come from a lab leak, then people will do something serious about bio-lab safety, and if it’s proven not to have come from a lab leak, then people will do much less about bio-lab safety; this one data point will be taken as strong evidence about the danger. So, getting an answer is potentially useful for political purposes.
(Remember: SARS 1 leaked from a lab 4 times. That seems to me like plenty of evidence that lab leaks are a real danger, unless you think labs have substantially improved practices since then.)