I had the same feeling and have written up my thoughts in this comment https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DAc4iuy4D3EiNBt9B/how-to-evaluate-50-predictions?commentId=RykR3sX57jbbLJaRB
I had the same feeling and have written up my thoughts in this comment https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DAc4iuy4D3EiNBt9B/how-to-evaluate-50-predictions?commentId=RykR3sX57jbbLJaRB