I would assum they have the math right but not really sure why anyone cares. It’s a bit like the Voter’s Paradox. In and of it self it points to an interesting phenomena to investivate but really doesn’t provide guidance for what someone should do.
I do find it odd that the probabilities are so low given the total votes you mention, and adding you also have 51 electoral blocks and some 530-odd electoral votes that matter. Seems like perhaps someone is missing the forest for the trees.
I would make an observation on your closing thought. I think if one holds that people who are not well informed, or perhaps less intelligent and so not as good at choosing good representatives then one quickly gets to most/many people should not be making their own economic decisions on consumption (or savings or investments). Simple premise here is that capital allocation matters to growth and efficiency (vis-a-vis production possibilities frontier). But that allocation is determined by aggregate spending on final goods production—i.e. consumer goods.
Seems like people have a more direct influence on economic activity and allocation via their spending behavior than the more indirect influence via politics and public policy.
I would assum they have the math right but not really sure why anyone cares. It’s a bit like the Voter’s Paradox. In and of it self it points to an interesting phenomena to investivate but really doesn’t provide guidance for what someone should do.
I do find it odd that the probabilities are so low given the total votes you mention, and adding you also have 51 electoral blocks and some 530-odd electoral votes that matter. Seems like perhaps someone is missing the forest for the trees.
I would make an observation on your closing thought. I think if one holds that people who are not well informed, or perhaps less intelligent and so not as good at choosing good representatives then one quickly gets to most/many people should not be making their own economic decisions on consumption (or savings or investments). Simple premise here is that capital allocation matters to growth and efficiency (vis-a-vis production possibilities frontier). But that allocation is determined by aggregate spending on final goods production—i.e. consumer goods.
Seems like people have a more direct influence on economic activity and allocation via their spending behavior than the more indirect influence via politics and public policy.