Biden not being the democratic nominee at 13% while EITHER Biden or Trump not being their respective nominees at 14% implies a 1% chance that Trump won’t be the Republican nominee. There’s clearly an arbitrage there. Whether it merits the costs (gas, risk of polymarket default, lost opportunity of the escrowed wager) I have no clue.
Biden not being the democratic nominee at 13% while EITHER Biden or Trump not being their respective nominees at 14% implies a 1% chance that Trump won’t be the Republican nominee. There’s clearly an arbitrage there. Whether it merits the costs (gas, risk of polymarket default, lost opportunity of the escrowed wager) I have no clue.