I’m envisioning observing that nothing even very bad has happened yet, which I think is in fact pretty well correlated with actual safety.
The classic counter-example involves a turkey in the middle of November. Nothing very bad has happened to it ever—must be very safe, then...
Sure. As with everything else in the universe, we have to make do with partial information and sometimes it’ll lead us astray.
There is a bit more wisdom here :-)
There usual context for this example is a conversation about relying on historical data and not paying too much attention to “external” (or “meta” or “structural” or… etc.) factors.
The classic counter-example involves a turkey in the middle of November. Nothing very bad has happened to it ever—must be very safe, then...
Sure. As with everything else in the universe, we have to make do with partial information and sometimes it’ll lead us astray.
There is a bit more wisdom here :-)
There usual context for this example is a conversation about relying on historical data and not paying too much attention to “external” (or “meta” or “structural” or… etc.) factors.