Jackman only just released his data now (after twittering with me, incidentally, I was able to explain why his R Brier score wasn’t matching his hand-calculated Brier score) because he forgot to send it to me last night; and I’m running on fumes—we started this project from scratch yesterday at 5PM and I’ve been working on it ever since. EDIT: Looks like all the kerfluffle of new Brier/RMSE scores prodded Sam Wang into releasing his precise predictions too! Neat. EDITEDIT: I’ve gotten Jackman’s data, incorporated it, discovered an error in my own data, differed with Jackman, learned he regarded 5 states as such a sure thing he didn’t include probabilities while I had simply put in NAs, and now we’ve converged on his Brier score. Phew! His current Brier score is 0.009713686, a bit worse than Silver’s 0.009113725, and both seem to be outperformed by Drew Linzer’s 0.003843257. Wang seems to’ve released the data, but the CSV is unlabeled and I have no idea what half the columns mean...
I’d also like to include a random-guesser equivalent for RMSE… Tomorrow.
Why doesn’t Jackman get a Brier score? He claims it’s .00991: http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/?p=2602
Jackman only just released his data now (after twittering with me, incidentally, I was able to explain why his R Brier score wasn’t matching his hand-calculated Brier score) because he forgot to send it to me last night; and I’m running on fumes—we started this project from scratch yesterday at 5PM and I’ve been working on it ever since. EDIT: Looks like all the kerfluffle of new Brier/RMSE scores prodded Sam Wang into releasing his precise predictions too! Neat. EDITEDIT: I’ve gotten Jackman’s data, incorporated it, discovered an error in my own data, differed with Jackman, learned he regarded 5 states as such a sure thing he didn’t include probabilities while I had simply put in
NAs, and now we’ve converged on his Brier score. Phew! His current Brier score is 0.009713686, a bit worse than Silver’s 0.009113725, and both seem to be outperformed by Drew Linzer’s 0.003843257. Wang seems to’ve released the data, but the CSV is unlabeled and I have no idea what half the columns mean...I’d also like to include a random-guesser equivalent for RMSE… Tomorrow.
A better Brier random guesser and its RMSE equivalent are now in the R doc and hopefully the blog post will be updated shortly.
We only included people whose Brier scores we could calculate ourselves. We plan to add Jackman when we get his data.