Of course there are no such posts, and I hoped that people would read it in this spirit! I’m in fact arguing against that elephant in many a room where people are discussing collapse and x-risk.
I’m sure many people have thought:
a= x-risk this century, and b= chance of non-recovery post collapse and c= likelihood of future society reaching modernity at a stage when they’re better organised than current society at addressing the age of perils.
If a>b and c > 0.5, and we accept longtermism, then collapse seems desirable. If we add fairly pessimistic views about ongoing moral tragedies, or ideas like antinatalism and negative utilitarianism, it tips the balance further towards collapse.
This post is an expression of this dilemma- I feel it captures the tone I was hoping for… but no-one else seems to like it, unfortunately.
Of course there are no such posts, and I hoped that people would read it in this spirit! I’m in fact arguing against that elephant in many a room where people are discussing collapse and x-risk.
I’m sure many people have thought:
a= x-risk this century, and b= chance of non-recovery post collapse and c= likelihood of future society reaching modernity at a stage when they’re better organised than current society at addressing the age of perils.
If a>b and c > 0.5, and we accept longtermism, then collapse seems desirable. If we add fairly pessimistic views about ongoing moral tragedies, or ideas like antinatalism and negative utilitarianism, it tips the balance further towards collapse.
This post is an expression of this dilemma- I feel it captures the tone I was hoping for… but no-one else seems to like it, unfortunately.