Long answer, there is a difference between the current moment defined by the first-person perspective versus an objectively defined moment. This is the same as the difference between the first-person versus the physical person. The whole “Is ‘I exist’ meaningful evidence” debate is caused by mixing the two meanings and randomly switching their use in reasoning.
I suppose your question is asking “If I check the calendar now (as the current moment), what is the probability it will show 5.” Then there is no way to assign a probability to it.
If you define the moment some other way. E.g. “checking the calendar on a randomly selected awakening in the experiment, ” then of course there is a probability.
Regarding the first-person perspective as a random sample is the assumption I argue against. But that is something both SSA and SIA endorses. Which allows them to assign values to self-locating probabilities. For the above two questions, SSA and SIA will consider them the same question. They however would argue what is the correct selection process.
Short answer, also rejected.
Long answer, there is a difference between the current moment defined by the first-person perspective versus an objectively defined moment. This is the same as the difference between the first-person versus the physical person. The whole “Is ‘I exist’ meaningful evidence” debate is caused by mixing the two meanings and randomly switching their use in reasoning.
I suppose your question is asking “If I check the calendar now (as the current moment), what is the probability it will show 5.” Then there is no way to assign a probability to it.
If you define the moment some other way. E.g. “checking the calendar on a randomly selected awakening in the experiment, ” then of course there is a probability.
Regarding the first-person perspective as a random sample is the assumption I argue against. But that is something both SSA and SIA endorses. Which allows them to assign values to self-locating probabilities. For the above two questions, SSA and SIA will consider them the same question. They however would argue what is the correct selection process.