Is Bayes’ rule even computationally useful for this kind of evidence? 🤔
It’s at least valid, and I think I made use of it.
I’m not sure where these numbers come from. They look like they come from your general impression of this stuff, but what’s the advantage of using Bayes’ rule for this general impression, over just taking the general impression the opposite way, making up a number for the updates due to the current war?
The advantage is that I didn’t have to make up the other half of the likelihood ratio, which I would have had to do if I just made up the update.
It’s at least valid, and I think I made use of it.
The advantage is that I didn’t have to make up the other half of the likelihood ratio, which I would have had to do if I just made up the update.