About the 70:1 odds at the start of the calculation: Shouldn’t we include our knowledge from other potential conflicts as well to get to our prior?
I.e. India—Pakistan, US—China, Russia/SU—China?
Maybe, but they seem relatively closely linked, and the two biggest players seem like they’re in their own reference class. That said, I basically buy that this should shade the prior down a bit, but just not hugely.
About the 70:1 odds at the start of the calculation: Shouldn’t we include our knowledge from other potential conflicts as well to get to our prior? I.e. India—Pakistan, US—China, Russia/SU—China?
Maybe, but they seem relatively closely linked, and the two biggest players seem like they’re in their own reference class. That said, I basically buy that this should shade the prior down a bit, but just not hugely.