DanielFilan comments on What’s the chance a smart London resident dies of a Russian nuke in the next month?

[DanielFilan]

I suppose this side of the calculation is more sensible, since you can sort of get historical data on it. But the historical data assumes that it doesn’t change over time, which I’m not sure I buy.

My sense is that incorporating possible changes over time will be significantly harder and not actually change the answer all that much.