Actually, that is a fair example, and I have changed my opinion. Where there is actual control (not just asymmetrical information), prediction markets don’t work. This may generalize to prediction markets not working where prediction is impossible. For instance, betting on the flip of a biased coin won’t make good predictions unless some participants know the bias.
Actually, that is a fair example, and I have changed my opinion. Where there is actual control (not just asymmetrical information), prediction markets don’t work. This may generalize to prediction markets not working where prediction is impossible. For instance, betting on the flip of a biased coin won’t make good predictions unless some participants know the bias.