3% seems too high for me, depending on definition. I’d put it at around 1% of significant violent outbreaks (1000+ deaths due to violence), and less than 0.2% (below which point my intuitions break down) of civil war (50k+ deaths). If you include chance of a coup (significant deviance from current civil procedures with very limited violence), it might hit 3%.
Metaculus is using a very weak definition—at least two of four listed agencies (Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE) describe the US as being in civil war. There are a lot of ways this can happen without truly widespread violence.
I think you’re misinformed about militias—there are clubs and underground organizations that call themselves that—they exist and they’re worrisome. But they’re not widespread nor organized, and ‘trained to conduct warfare’ is vastly overstating it. There IS some risk (IMO) in big urban police forces—they are organized and trained for control of important areas, and over the years have become too militarized. I think it’s most likely that they’re mostly well-enough integrated into their communities that they won’t go much further than they did in the protests this summer, but if the gloves really come off, that’ll be a key determinant.
3% seems too high for me, depending on definition. I’d put it at around 1% of significant violent outbreaks (1000+ deaths due to violence), and less than 0.2% (below which point my intuitions break down) of civil war (50k+ deaths). If you include chance of a coup (significant deviance from current civil procedures with very limited violence), it might hit 3%.
Metaculus is using a very weak definition—at least two of four listed agencies (Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE) describe the US as being in civil war. There are a lot of ways this can happen without truly widespread violence.
I think you’re misinformed about militias—there are clubs and underground organizations that call themselves that—they exist and they’re worrisome. But they’re not widespread nor organized, and ‘trained to conduct warfare’ is vastly overstating it. There IS some risk (IMO) in big urban police forces—they are organized and trained for control of important areas, and over the years have become too militarized. I think it’s most likely that they’re mostly well-enough integrated into their communities that they won’t go much further than they did in the protests this summer, but if the gloves really come off, that’ll be a key determinant.